Thinking About Kentucky Derby Viewers
The race has been run and all the different numbers have been tallied. As usual the whole ball of wax was a smashing success. We learned from Nielsen that 14.8 million viewers tuned in to watch this year, which by any standard is a healthy number. Granted, we're not talking about the 40 million who may have watched the Derby in the 1950s, or even the 25 million who watched in the 1970s. But in the crowded sports world of 2012, 15 million viewers is saying something.
The number of viewers is up a little from 2011, but within the margin of sampling error, so basically flat. But the number of viewers is again down dramatically from 2010 for some inexplicable reason. We questioned the drop of two million viewers in 2011 and continue to do so. It really doesn't make much sense. But it's the Nielsen ratings, which speak with all the authority of a papal edict. So onward and upward.
What do we know about the people who watch the Kentucky Derby? Well, obviously, there's a lot of them. The Derby is Thoroughbred racing's annual moment in the sun. The one day a year when horse racing gets to be the life of the party. Do we know anything else about these many millions of our fellow Americans? Let's have a go using some data-driven assumptions.
Women like to watch the Kentucky Derby. This is nothing new and continues to be an oddity in the sports landscape. For many women, the Kentucky Derby is likely the only sports telecast they will watch all year.
Like the core fanbase, Kentucky Derby viewers are older on average. I'll continue to maintain, until proven otherwise, that Thoroughbred racing fans and horseplayers are typically of a certain age, not aging, as many believe. That's a vital distinction. According to one study, 40% of adults who watch the Kentucky Derby are Baby Boomers and 30% are 65+.
Now here's an interesting statistic which we'll use as a launching point to do some back-of-the-napkin Kentucky Derby viewer segmentation. This will be fun. Really it will.
What do you think? Does that sound right to you? In a typical year around half of those who watch the Kentucky Derby will stay with the Triple Crown and watch the Preakness and Belmont? Well, if you search for some viewership numbers and give them a quick look, the statement passes the sniff test. I'm pretty much buying it. Now, in a year when the Triple Crown is at stake at Belmont Park, the dynamic is quite different. For the third jewel, that's a horse of a different color from a viewership perspective.
Here's the funny thing -- Preakness viewership always drops off from the Derby, significantly. I think we have our first viewer segment -- those who tune in to watch the Kentucky Derby and then check out of the Triple Crown. Cool. This segment needs a name. Apart from the utter joy of discovering something nobody else knows about, thinking up names for various identified segments is really the fun part of doing customer segmentation studies. Not that we're really doing that here. I'm going to call these viewers the Fancy Hats.
Who are the Fancy Hats? And how can they watch the Derby but not the Preakness? No real idea. I'll presume they're disproportionately female. Are they potential fans and horseplayers? That's anyone's guess. But I have a hunch that they are quite happy to watch the Derby and be done with horse racing for the year. I also think they've been at this for a long time. Maybe they come back to watch the Belmont if the Triple Crown is on the line. Maybe not.
Our second viewer segment is comprised of those who will watch all three Triple Crown races. We'll call them Triple Crowners. That's not overly creative but it will do. Really don't know much about this segment either. They're probably better candidates to develop into fans and bettors. Maybe not.
What about the avid Thoroughbred racing fans and horseplayers? The core Racing Tribe. We watch the Triple Crown religiously. How many are we? Well, in a typical year about one million will choose to watch the Breeders' Cup telecast, racing's true championship day, instead of Tennessee vs. Alabama or some other college football offering. That's a fair indication of tribe membership. One million it is. We know a little bit about the Racing Tribe, but not nearly enough.
Let's pause and review using our 15 million Kentucky Derby viewers from last Saturday. Around half are Fancy Hats (7.5 million) and the Racing Tribe is one million. That leaves 6.5 million to be Triple Crowners.
Can we use our segments to predict viewership numbers for the Preakness? Well, 6.5 million Triple Crowners plus one million from the Tribe is 7.5 million. But what about incremental viewers? Those who will watch the Preakness but didn't watch the Kentucky Derby. You already know what we'll call them. The New Shooters. I'll say there are one million New Shooters simply because it's a nice round number.
There you have it. If Nielsen comes back and tells us that 8.5 million people watched the Preakness we may be onto something.
The race has been run and all the different numbers have been tallied. As usual the whole ball of wax was a smashing success. We learned from Nielsen that 14.8 million viewers tuned in to watch this year, which by any standard is a healthy number. Granted, we're not talking about the 40 million who may have watched the Derby in the 1950s, or even the 25 million who watched in the 1970s. But in the crowded sports world of 2012, 15 million viewers is saying something.
The number of viewers is up a little from 2011, but within the margin of sampling error, so basically flat. But the number of viewers is again down dramatically from 2010 for some inexplicable reason. We questioned the drop of two million viewers in 2011 and continue to do so. It really doesn't make much sense. But it's the Nielsen ratings, which speak with all the authority of a papal edict. So onward and upward.
What do we know about the people who watch the Kentucky Derby? Well, obviously, there's a lot of them. The Derby is Thoroughbred racing's annual moment in the sun. The one day a year when horse racing gets to be the life of the party. Do we know anything else about these many millions of our fellow Americans? Let's have a go using some data-driven assumptions.
Women like to watch the Kentucky Derby. This is nothing new and continues to be an oddity in the sports landscape. For many women, the Kentucky Derby is likely the only sports telecast they will watch all year.
Kentucky Derby audience was 51% female.
— TVSportsratings (@tvsportsratings) May 8, 2012
Like the core fanbase, Kentucky Derby viewers are older on average. I'll continue to maintain, until proven otherwise, that Thoroughbred racing fans and horseplayers are typically of a certain age, not aging, as many believe. That's a vital distinction. According to one study, 40% of adults who watch the Kentucky Derby are Baby Boomers and 30% are 65+.
Kentucky Derby on NBC: 3.06 in Men 18-49 (-8% vs. last year) & 14.8 mil viewers (+2%). Median age of 60 years.
— TVSportsratings (@tvsportsratings) May 8, 2012
Now here's an interesting statistic which we'll use as a launching point to do some back-of-the-napkin Kentucky Derby viewer segmentation. This will be fun. Really it will.
44% of Kentucky Derby viewers watched the #BelmontStakes and 45% watched the #PreaknessStakes in past year. For more: bit.ly/I2PI7q
— Scarborough Research (@ScarboroughInfo) May 5, 2012
What do you think? Does that sound right to you? In a typical year around half of those who watch the Kentucky Derby will stay with the Triple Crown and watch the Preakness and Belmont? Well, if you search for some viewership numbers and give them a quick look, the statement passes the sniff test. I'm pretty much buying it. Now, in a year when the Triple Crown is at stake at Belmont Park, the dynamic is quite different. For the third jewel, that's a horse of a different color from a viewership perspective.
Here's the funny thing -- Preakness viewership always drops off from the Derby, significantly. I think we have our first viewer segment -- those who tune in to watch the Kentucky Derby and then check out of the Triple Crown. Cool. This segment needs a name. Apart from the utter joy of discovering something nobody else knows about, thinking up names for various identified segments is really the fun part of doing customer segmentation studies. Not that we're really doing that here. I'm going to call these viewers the Fancy Hats.
Who are the Fancy Hats? And how can they watch the Derby but not the Preakness? No real idea. I'll presume they're disproportionately female. Are they potential fans and horseplayers? That's anyone's guess. But I have a hunch that they are quite happy to watch the Derby and be done with horse racing for the year. I also think they've been at this for a long time. Maybe they come back to watch the Belmont if the Triple Crown is on the line. Maybe not.
Our second viewer segment is comprised of those who will watch all three Triple Crown races. We'll call them Triple Crowners. That's not overly creative but it will do. Really don't know much about this segment either. They're probably better candidates to develop into fans and bettors. Maybe not.
What about the avid Thoroughbred racing fans and horseplayers? The core Racing Tribe. We watch the Triple Crown religiously. How many are we? Well, in a typical year about one million will choose to watch the Breeders' Cup telecast, racing's true championship day, instead of Tennessee vs. Alabama or some other college football offering. That's a fair indication of tribe membership. One million it is. We know a little bit about the Racing Tribe, but not nearly enough.
Let's pause and review using our 15 million Kentucky Derby viewers from last Saturday. Around half are Fancy Hats (7.5 million) and the Racing Tribe is one million. That leaves 6.5 million to be Triple Crowners.
Can we use our segments to predict viewership numbers for the Preakness? Well, 6.5 million Triple Crowners plus one million from the Tribe is 7.5 million. But what about incremental viewers? Those who will watch the Preakness but didn't watch the Kentucky Derby. You already know what we'll call them. The New Shooters. I'll say there are one million New Shooters simply because it's a nice round number.
There you have it. If Nielsen comes back and tells us that 8.5 million people watched the Preakness we may be onto something.
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